St. Petersburg receives 9 proposals for Tropicana Field's $6.8B redevelopment - here's why the city's third attempt could finally transform downtown's biggest opportunity

Your city just got handed the biggest real estate opportunity in Tampa Bay history. Again.

St. Petersburg received nine proposals by February 3rd for the 86-acre Historic Gas Plant District - the site that houses Tropicana Field and represents downtown's most valuable undeveloped land. Mayor Ken Welch narrowed the field to four finalists who presented their visions on April 30th: ARK Ellison Horus ($6.8 billion), Blake Investment Partners ($8.1 billion), Foundation Vision Partners, and the Pinellas County Housing Authority.

But here's the reality check - this is St. Petersburg's third attempt at redeveloping this site in five years. For the third time in five years, St. Petersburg is seeking a developer for its most prized tract of land. The last deal with the Tampa Bay Rays fell apart when the Rays and Hines announced in March that they were withdrawing from the deal after missing key project milestones.

Why this 86-acre site matters more than any other Tampa Bay development

Nearly 40 years ago, members of the Historic Gas Plant community were displaced by the ultimately successful pursuit of Major League Baseball and the eventual construction of what is now Tropicana Field. While the move brought our city the Tampa Bay Rays, residents and businesses were forced to relocate with the promise of jobs, opportunity, and equitable development, which did not materialize.

The numbers tell you everything about this site's potential. The Tropicana Field site has an estimated market value ranging from $66 million to $277.4 million, according to three appraisals on the property. But the redevelopment proposals are talking about $6.8 billion to $8.1 billion in total investment - that's a 20-30x multiplier on current land value.

Location drives everything in real estate, and this site sits in the sweet spot. It's walking distance to downtown St. Petersburg's business district, the Innovation District, and the waterfront. The Gas Plant District is a historically Black neighborhood leveled to make way for the construction of Tropicana Field and the construction of Interstate 175. At the time, residents of the district were promised economic opportunities would come from the projects, but locals agree those opportunities never fully materialized.

The four finalists and what each means for Tampa Bay buyers and sellers

According to evaluation forms obtained Friday, staff endorsed proposals from Ark Ellison Horus, Blake Investment Partners, Foundation Vision Partners, and the Pinellas County Housing Authority and eliminated four others from contention.

ARK Ellison Horus ($6.8 billion): Casey Ellison, CEO of Ellison Companies;Cathie Wood, the founder of global investment firm ARK Invest; and Jonathan Graham, President of Horus Construction are behind the effort. The group submitted a 98-page unsolicited proposal to the City of St. Petersburg this morning outlining a $6.8 billion vision for a new mixed-use district anchored by innovation, housing, cultural institutions, and world-class event venues. As part of the proposal, the group will pay the City of St. Petersburg at least $202 million.

Blake Investment Partners ($8.1 billion): St. Petersburg native Thompson Whitney Blake, founder of Blake Investment Partners, enlisted the Related Group, a Miami-based development firm, and several local organizations for his $8.1 billion proposal. A 13-acre central park and pedestrian-centered "museum row," featuring a new Woodson Museum, would anchor the district. The developers would purchase 58 acres for $275 million and create 3,600 on and off-site affordable and workforce housing units.

Foundation Vision Partners: Former members of the Rays and Hines development team partnered with Will Conroy, founder of St. Petersburg-based real estate investment firm Backstreets Capital, to submit a unique proposal that would allow the city to retain ownership of the land. The group, Foundation Vision Partners (FVP), would take a master planning and infrastructure-first approach to transforming the area into a vibrant, mixed-use community. St. Petersburg would pay an estimated $67 million in upfront costs to unlock $510 million in land sales, according to the proposal.

Housing shortage meets massive opportunity

Every single finalist is promising thousands of new housing units. Housing is a central component, with over 1,900 affordable, workforce, and senior units planned across all phases: 863 affordable, 618 senior affordable, and 444 workforce in the ARK Ellison Horus plan alone.

The plan includes thousands of residential units, including more than 3,600 units of income-restricted housing, as well as office, hotel, retail and entertainment space in Blake Investment Partners' proposal.

This matters for Tampa Bay's housing crisis. We're talking about potentially 5,000+ new units in a single development - that's more housing than most entire neighborhoods contain. For buyers, this could mean more inventory and price pressure on surrounding areas. For sellers, proximity to this massive development could drive significant appreciation.

"After terminating the agreements, receiving a viable unsolicited proposal, and extending the total time for alternative proposal submission, now is not the time to halt the process" - Mayor Ken Welch

Timeline and political reality

Mayor Ken Welch has narrowed down the field to four proposals and is aiming to make his choice in June. His selection would be vetted by City Council and the Community Benefits Advisory Council, which assesses city-funded projects for perks like affordable housing and environmental sustainability.

But there's political tension. This comes despite a recent vote by the city council to delay the project. The council says the mayor bypassed them on plans for the 84-acre Historic Gas Plant District, so they asked for a pause in the process.

He's now staring at a 2026 reelection campaign with a line of prospective challengers already forming. That's putting pressure on Welch to get this done, but also creating uncertainty about whether any chosen developer can actually move forward.

My honest take on what happens next

I've watched St. Petersburg try to redevelop this site three times now. The difference this time is the scale of the proposals - we're talking about investments that dwarf anything Tampa Bay has seen. But the politics are messier than ever.

The Rays situation creates both urgency and uncertainty. Its lease on Tropicana Field expires at the end of the 2028 season, but Gov. Ron DeSantis in Tampa, declaring his support for a proposal to relocate the Tampa Bay Rays ballpark away from the Historic Gas Plant District in St. Petersburg to the Hillsborough Community College Dale Mabry campus in Tampa within the next few years.

For Tampa Bay real estate, this represents the single biggest catalyst for downtown St. Petersburg in decades. If one of these massive developments moves forward, it will reshape property values from downtown to South St. Pete. If it falls apart again, expect continued uncertainty around one of the region's most valuable development sites.

The smart money is watching this closely. Whether you're buying, selling, or investing in St. Petersburg, the outcome of this process will ripple through the entire Tampa Bay market for years to come.

Want to understand how these massive developments might impact your property value or investment strategy? Let's talk. No pressure - just real data and straight answers about what these changes mean for Tampa Bay real estate.